PART I: THE PGSC SCORE, PART I: PGSC (PERFORMANCE, SONG FRESHNESS, GROWTH AND CONSISTENCY) VERSUS ACTUAL IDOL RANK
*Part I contains the ranks of the Idol contestants on a season-by-season basis, based on the PGSC score. Think of this as the way the contestants should be ranked, assuming neutral ground and zero pimpage. It is also the way I would rank them.
*Part II ranks the Idol contestants based on PGSC score, according to genre.
I've integrated several features used in previous models to this PGSC score model. Check it out below:
Geographic location is standard: West, Midwest, South and Northeast. There are several contestants that have moved through several locations during their lifetime, but I used their most common location--i.e. Casey Abrams is from Idyllwild, CA rather than from Illinois, and Sam Woolf is from Florida as opposed to Michigan.
Age is separated into the three brackets which I think denotes young, middle age and older as far as Idol contestants are concerned. That's 0-19, 20-23 and 24+.
Genre is a little bit arbitrary, but I chose the genre the contestant presented themselves at during the show. Adam Lambert might have done pop after the show, but for the show's purposes, he was a rocker. There are some which melded genres or couldn't be fit into a specific genre, so for those I lumped them as "hybrid". The categories are hybrid, pop, soul, country, rock, and singer-songwriter.
Instead of using the 8-degree logistic regression in the previous model, I've decided to use a logarithmic regression here, because the general trends somewhat hold even if there is more noise (the trend is more easily visualized).
This pertains to the first graph:
The first thing immediately seen in the model: singer-songwriters have a very high chance of winning, even past a lowly PGSC score of 100, but especially at the 160+ range. They blow every other genre away.
Country and pop, in that order, are the next two genres represented, and then hybrid, rock and soul alternate. My PGSC model tends to hate soul contestants due to the low freshness scores, so the at lower scores they tend to make it farther than they should (i.e. Scott Savol, Jacob Lusk, LaKisha Jones). And there are major diminishing returns in soul--the higher PGSC score the contestant gets, the curve stabilizes into a lower value than the other genres. Rockers surprisingly do not fare all that well in this metric, and hybrids are also a mixed bag.
If were to separate the genre analysis by age bracket, at ages 0-19, country (Lauren and Scotty of AI10 help with this curve), soul, pop, rock, hybrid and country represents in that order. Considering that Jena is a hybrid in this age bracket, I'm not sure if this bode well for her chances here.
At the age 20-23 age bracket, singer-songwriter represents the most, then country, then hybrid, then rock, then soul, then pop represents, in that order.
At the age 24+ age bracket, pop represents the most (but we only have three data points--and Blake Lewis's placement helps skew the curve with a higher PGSC score), and then soul, rock, singer-songwriter, country and hybrid is last.
This pertains to the second graph:
The second graph generates the logarithmic curves with respect to location. If we were to analyze by location, the South and the Midwest yield the highest probability of advancing far, in that order, and then farther off is the West, and even farther off is the Northeast. In the 0-19 bracket, west does the best, then the south, then the northeast, and finally, the midwest (they have only produced contestants in this bracket that have always finished at 8th place).
At the 20-23 age bracket, midwest does the best, by far, and then the south, and then the west, and then the northeast (the northeast has always produced contestants in this bracket that finish in 9th place).
At the 24+ bracket, the midwest also dominates, and then the south and the west are in a bit of a dead heat here, and the northeast does the worst.
In terms of genres, for country, the midwest does the best, then the south, and then we only have one data point for the northeast and the west, but they are ranked in that order.
For hybrid genres, the midwest also represents the best, then the south, the northeast and then the west (but west and northeast are close).
For pop, it's the west, then the northeast, the south and then the midwest (midwest only has one data point).
For rock, it's the midwest, west, south and then the northeast.
For singer-songwriter, it is the west, midwest, and then the south. A key issue is that the west's regression curve is based off extrapolations off Brooke White's and MK Nobilette's data points, so this isn't entirely reliable. Alex Preston will provide a data point for the northeast soon on this.
For soul, the South is most reliable. What's interesting is that midwest soul contestants do really well with lower PGSC scores, but with higher ones, they perform really awfully, even lower than the west and northeast, which are in a statistical dead heat.
Now, here's a ranking of contestants based on genre and PGSC score, for reference:
|1) Kree Harrison||AI12||231||COUNTRY||20-23||S|
|2) Phil Stacey||AI6||213||COUNTRY||24+||S|
|3) Lauren Alaina||AI10||188||COUNTRY||0-19||S|
|4) Janelle Arthur||AI12||185||COUNTRY||20-23||S|
|5) Scotty McCreery||AI10||176||COUNTRY||0-19||S|
|6) Carrie Underwood||AI4||170||COUNTRY||20-23||MW|
|7) Bucky Covington||AI5||157||COUNTRY||24+||S|
|8) Casey James||AI9||155||COUNTRY||24+||S|
|9) Kristy Lee Cook||AI7||143||COUNTRY||24+||W|
|10) Skylar Laine||AI11||136||COUNTRY||0-19||S|
|11) Danny Gokey||AI8||110||COUNTRY||24+||MW|
|12) Dexter Roberts||AI13||98||COUNTRY||20-23||S|
|13) Paul Jolley||AI12||80||COUNTRY||20-23||S|
|14) Aaron Kelly||AI9||73||COUNTRY||0-19||NE|
|15) Kellie Pickler||AI5||57||COUNTRY||0-19||S|
|16) Michael Sarver||AI8||35||COUNTRY||24+||S|
|7)Jon Peter Lewis||AI3||98||SING-SONG||24+||MW|
|11) MK Nobilette||AI13||40||SING-SONG||20-23||W|
|1) Anoop Desai||AI8||224||SOUL||20-23||S|
|6) George Huff||AI3||151||SOUL||20-23||S|
|N/A) Curtis Finch||AI12||SOUL||24+||MW|
Look at the company Alex Preston shares at the singer-songwriter slot: all those guys he is clustered with won their respective seasons. As a hybrid genre type (pop/rock), Jena doesn't have precedent for producing a winner. Caleb Johnson is lumped between David Cook and Bo Bice, so he can be winner or runner-up; however, unlike Alex and Jena, he isn't in the top five with respect to genre for PGSC score, so his style has been done better on the Idol stage before.
Play with the graphs below to learn more.